How fast the Calls to Action are being completed

From cumulative counts of completed Calls to Action over time, the completion rate (calls a year), its exact Poisson interval, and the year all 94 would be complete at that rate.

Usage

trcprog(
  done = trccmpl()$cumulative,
  yearend = trccmpl()$yearend,
  total = 94,
  start = 2015.96,
  conflvl = 0.95
)

Arguments

done: Cumulative number completed at each date (default: trccmpl).
yearend: The year each count was made to (end of year).
total: Number of Calls to Action (94).
start: When counting began, as a year with a fraction (2015.96: December 15, 2015).
conflvl: Confidence level of the completion rate (default 0.95).

Value

A one-row data frame of class rmbl_trc_progress with the columns completed, remaining, years, rate, ratelo, rateup, cmplby, cmplbyearly and cmplbylate; plot() draws the completions and the projection, with the band the rate's interval gives.

Details

Completions are taken as a Poisson process with a constant rate over the span from the start (start, the Commission's final report in December 2015) to the last count: the rate is \(c / T\) with the exact (Garwood) interval for \(c\) completed calls, and the projection is the year \(94 - c\) more would take at that rate (at the interval's ends, its range). A constant rate is the simplest model, and the one behind the Yellowhead Institute's projection (“42 years, or until 2065”, 2022); with the counts to the end of 2022 and December 2015 as the start it gives 2067. The pace has not been constant, so the projection is a description of the pace so far, not a forecast. Any count of commitments completed over time can be modelled the same way: set total and start.

Examples

p <- trcprog()
p
#> ╭── Truth and Reconciliation Calls to Action: progress ────────────────────╮
#> │   Completed        13 of 94                                              │
#> │   Remaining        81                                                    │
#> │   Years counted    7.04                                                  │
#> │   Calls a year     1.85 [0.983, 3.160]                                   │
#> │   All complete by  2066 (2048 to 2105)                                   │
#> │                                                                          │
#> │   At this pace the remaining 81 Calls are complete around 2066.          │
#> │                                                                          │
#> │   Completions taken as a Poisson process at a constant rate; the range   │
#> │   comes from the rate's interval. Trackers count completion differently. │
#> ╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
plot(p)


# your own count: Calls completed by the end of each year, made up
trcprog(done = c(2, 6, 9, 13), yearend = 2016:2019)
#> ╭── Truth and Reconciliation Calls to Action: progress ────────────────────╮
#> │   Completed        13 of 94                                              │
#> │   Remaining        81                                                    │
#> │   Years counted    4.04                                                  │
#> │   Calls a year     3.22 [1.71, 5.50]                                     │
#> │   All complete by  2045 (2034 to 2067)                                   │
#> │                                                                          │
#> │   At this pace the remaining 81 Calls are complete around 2045.          │
#> │                                                                          │
#> │   Completions taken as a Poisson process at a constant rate; the range   │
#> │   comes from the rate's interval. Trackers count completion differently. │
#> ╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯